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应用Copula方法构建了禹门口调水工程黄河水源区与汾河受水区之间的二维径流联合分布模型,并对二者之间的丰枯遭遇频率进行了计算,在此基础上构建了贝叶斯网络丰枯遭遇风险管理模型,对禹门口调水工程未来运行中可能发生的丰枯遭遇及其风险进行了仿真研究。分析认为黄河水源区与汾河受水区同时出现枯水年为调水不利情况,其它丰枯组合为调水有利情况。经计算禹门口调水工程调水不利的概率为24.42%,调水有利的概率为75.58%;联合Copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论建立的禹门口调水工程水源区与受水区径流丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,可对不同情景下的丰枯遭遇和调水风险进行仿真研究,能够更真实地反映年径流量丰枯遭遇的演变规律。
Copula method was used to construct a two-dimensional runoff combined distribution model of the Yumenkou water transfer project between the Yellow River water source area and the Fenhe water receiving area. Based on this, Bayesian Networks experienced a risk management model and conducted a simulation study on the possible risks and risks of the future operation of Yumenkou water transfer project. The analysis shows that the Yellow River water source area and Fenhe catchment area occur simultaneously with the unfavorable conditions of water diversion in the dry years, and the other combination of abundant and dry fissures is favorable for water diversion. The calculated probability of water diversion in Yumenkou water transfer project is 24.42%, and the probability of favorable water diversion is 75.58%. The co-efficient of Copula function and Bayesian network theory results in that the Yumenkou water diversion project Encountering a risk analysis model can simulate the abundance of wind and water and the risk of water diversion in different scenarios and can more accurately reflect the evolution of annual runoff.