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为应对金融危机,2009年我国地方政府开始依托财政部有条件地发行地方政府债券,本文试图通过计量模型实证分析我国地方政府发行债券的“挤入”和“挤出”效应,并得出我国地方政府发行债券存在“挤入”效应的结论,提出地方政府发行债券对地方经济的发展有着积极作用。然而,地方政府发行债券无论是在理论上,还是在实践上均不可避免地存在一定的财政风险,因此,在倡导地方政府发债积极作用的同时,控制其规模是地方政府规避债务风险的首要任务。
In order to cope with the financial crisis, local governments in our country began to issue local government bonds on condition of the Ministry of Finance in 2009. This paper attempts to make empirical analysis of the “crowding-in” and “crowding-out” effect of the bonds issued by local governments in our country through the econometric model, And draws the conclusion that the local government bonds issued have the effect of “crowding in”. It concludes that the issuance of bonds by local governments has a positive effect on the development of local economy. However, the local government bonds issue inevitably have some fiscal risks both in theory and in practice. Therefore, controlling the scale of local government debt issuance while advocating the positive role of local government debt issuance is the most important issue for local governments to avoid debt risk task.