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近些年,通货膨胀和经济增长之间的关系得到广泛地讨论。本文给出了一个简单的通货膨胀影响经济增长的理论模型,同时利用1978—2009年年度经济数据实证考察了通货膨胀与中国经济增长之间的关系。基于门限效应回归模型,本文在标准的增长回归方程设定下考察通货膨胀对中国经济增长的影响作用。本文实证研究结果表明了通货膨胀具有统计意义上显著的门限效应,其与中国经济增长之间呈现出非线性关系。最后,基于本文对通货膨胀与中国经济增长之间关系的经验发现,我们提供了相关政策启示。
In recent years, the relationship between inflation and economic growth has been widely discussed. This paper gives a simple theoretical model of the impact of inflation on economic growth. At the same time, we use the annual economic data from 1978 to 2009 to empirically examine the relationship between inflation and China’s economic growth. Based on the threshold effect regression model, this paper examines the impact of inflation on China’s economic growth under the standard set of growth regression equations. The empirical results in this paper show that inflation has a statistically significant threshold effect and shows a nonlinear relationship with China’s economic growth. Finally, based on the empirical findings of this article about the relationship between inflation and China’s economic growth, we provide relevant policy implications.