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2012年豆粕期货市场和现货市场均走出一轮少有的大牛市行情。从年初的南美减产,到后来的美国世纪大旱,市场总有炒作题材,而且一波强过一波。年内行情暴涨促使国内大豆采购成本增加,下游产业链油脂压榨企业、饲料企业及养殖业都难逃厄运。新季大豆上市后,行情峰回路转,给一向看涨豆类行情的压榨企业带来致命一击。经历了2012年豆类行情的大起大落,让我们不禁想起2004年和2008年的豆类行情历史悲剧。2013年虽然有畜禽养殖存栏的支撑、北半球种植面积下滑的提振,但在南美丰产预期的打压下,豆类市场难现大涨行情,预计市场将呈牛市终结后区间震荡整理。
2012 soybean meal futures market and the spot market are out of a rare big bull market. From the beginning of the South America to reduce production, to the United States century drought later, the market has always been a speculation theme, but a wave after wave. During the year, the soaring market prices pushed up the purchase cost of domestic soybeans, and the oil squeezing enterprises, feed enterprises and breeding industries in the downstream industry chains escaped bad luck. After the listing of the new season soybeans, the market peaked, to the bull market has always been bullish squeezing businesses have a fatal blow. Experienced the ups and downs of the 2012 bean market, let us recall the historical tragedies of beans in 2004 and 2008. Although the support of livestock and poultry breeding in 2013 and the slashed planting area in the Northern Hemisphere, under the pressure of high expected output in South America, it is difficult for the legume market to rise sharply. The market is expected to undergo a range-bound consolidation after the bull market is over.