基于全概率理论,同时考虑地震和土性两方面不确定性对土层一点液化势指数的影响,推导出在一定年限内土层一点液化势指数及整个柱状土层液化程度的概率分布,并通过算例进行了说明。结果表明,砂土液化全概率分析方法具有时间和统计上的意义,更合理地评价了场地的液化可能性。 Based on the theory of total probability, taking into account the influence of the uncertainties of seismicity and soil properties on the one-point liquefaction potential index of soil, the probability distribution of the liquefaction potential index of the soil layer and the liquefaction degree of the entire columnar soil layer within a certain period of time is deduced An example is given. The results show that the method of total probability analysis of sand liquefaction has the time and statistical significance, and the liquefaction possibility of the site is more reasonably evaluated.