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首先概述新中国成立60年来经济增长率波动曲线的深刻变化,并剖析改革开放以来这条曲线背后经济结构的新变化,这些新变化也是我国经济今后继续增长的重要推动因素。在此基础上,指明在应对国际金融危机中,我国新一轮经济周期即将来临,强调要汲取历史的经验和教训,努力延长新一轮经济周期的上升阶段。为此要把握好两点:一是要把握好新一轮周期的波形,二是要把握好新一轮周期的适度增长区间。特别对新一轮周期中城市化和住宅业的重要作用,以及如何有效地解决房价不断上涨问题进行了分析。
First of all, it outlines the profound changes in the volatility curve of the economic growth rate since the founding of New China in the past 60 years. It also analyzes the new changes in the economic structure behind this curve since the reform and opening up. These new changes are also the important driving factors for our country’s economy to continue to grow in the future. On this basis, it is pointed out that in response to the global financial crisis, a new round of economic cycle in China is coming soon, stressing that we should draw on historical experiences and lessons and strive to prolong the rising period of a new round of economic cycles. To do this, we must grasp two points: First, we must grasp the waveform of the new round of cycles; second, we must grasp the moderate increase of the new round of cycles. In particular, it analyzes the important role of urbanization and housing in the new cycle and how to effectively address the rising housing prices.