今年以来,世界经济形势进一步转好,各地区的经济增长趋于平衡,全年经济增长将恢复到亚洲金融危机之前的水平,预示着世界经济将进入新的增长时期。虽然美国经济增速趋于放缓以及国际原油价格居高不下,可能对近期的世界经济增长产生一定程度的不利影响,但不大可能导致全球性经济动荡或衰退。从中长期看,世界各国都面临着经济全球化和信息技术革命的双重挑战,世界经济正在经历重大的结构性调整和重组,势必对我“人世”后的国际经济环境产生重大的影响。一、世界经济总体发展趋势看好今年上半年,世界经济形势普遍看好,发展前景好于预期,全年经济增长将不低于4%,从而重新恢复到1997年发生亚洲金融危机之前的水平,预示着世界经济有可能在经济全球化趋势不断增强的背景下开始新一轮的增长。上半年,虽 Since the beginning of this year, the world economic situation has further improved. The economic growth in various regions has been balanced. The economic growth of the entire year will return to what it was before the Asian financial crisis, indicating that the world economy will enter a new period of growth. Although the slowing economic growth in the United States and the high international crude oil prices may have some adverse effects on the recent world economic growth, it is unlikely to result in global economic turmoil or recession. In the medium and long term, all countries in the world are facing the dual challenges of economic globalization and the revolution in information technology. The world economy is experiencing major structural readjustment and reorganization and will inevitably have a significant impact on the international economic environment after the “death of the world.” I. Optimistic on the Overall Development Trend of the World Economy In the first half of this year, the world economic situation was generally optimistic and the development prospect was better than expected. The annual economic growth will not be less than 4%, thus regaining to the level before the Asian financial crisis in 1997, indicating It is possible that the world economy will start a new round of growth under the background of increasing economic globalization. In the first half, though