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中国近年来的快速工业化进程和贸易扩张,使人们开始考虑中国对自然资源需求的持续增加是否会影响到中国乃至整个世界的经济稳定及其增长。本文考察了日本、韩国和中国台湾省在其持续快速经济增长过程中对资源需求增加及相应的对世界市场的影响, 并力图从这些国家和地区的发展经历中吸取经验,从而推测21世纪上半叶中国经济的增长对能源及矿产品的需求。文章指出,在中国经济持续快速增长的后期,对能源消费的增长可能会使资源密集型产品价格大幅上涨,中国庞大的市场规模可能会使价格上涨持续几十年, 而不仅仅是几年。这一前景对所有国家的经济发展、国家内部乃至国家之间的收入分配、亚太乃至全世界国家间力量对比等问题都具有重要的意义。
China’s rapid industrialization and trade expansion in recent years have caused people to start thinking whether China’s continued increase in demand for natural resources will affect the economic stability and its growth in China and the entire world. This article examines Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province of China in their sustained rapid economic growth in the process of increasing demand for resources and the corresponding impact on the world market, and trying to learn from the experience of these countries and regions in the development experience, thus speculating that the 21st century Half-leaf China’s economic growth demands for energy and minerals. The article points out that in the late period of sustained and rapid economic growth in China, the growth of energy consumption may cause the prices of resource-intensive products to rise sharply. The huge market scale in China may cause prices to rise for several decades, not just a few years. This prospect is of great significance to the economic development of all countries, the distribution of income within and among nations, and the balance of power between countries in the Asia-Pacific region and the world as a whole.