通过分析旅客运输方式与运输系统外部因素之间的关系,及经济、人口、基础设施建设等运输系统内部各种影响因素,运用系统动力学方法构建了旅客综合运输系统流图。采用效用理论分析了旅客出行方式选择机理,并运用Vensim软件构建了旅客综合运输系统分析模型。模拟结果表明:公路运输具有较高的运输效用,其次是铁路运输和航空运输;未来10 a内,铁路旅客运输效用将保持0.074%的年增长率,市场占有环比增长率为1.025%,航空旅客运输效用将保持0.182%的年增长率,市场占有环比增长率为4.282%。 Through the analysis of the relationship between passenger transport mode and external factors of transport system and the various internal factors of transport system such as economy, population, infrastructure construction and so on, the system of dynamics of passenger transport system is used to build the flow chart of passenger transport system. The utility theory is used to analyze the selection mechanism of passenger travel modes and the Vensim software is used to construct the analysis model of passenger integrated transport system. The simulation results show that road transport has a higher transport efficiency, followed by rail transport and air transport. Within the next 10 years, the railway passenger transport utility will maintain an annual growth rate of 0.074% with a market growth rate of 1.025% MoM. Airline passengers Transport utility will maintain 0.182% annual growth rate, market share growth of 4.282%.