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●从国际形势看,2014年我国外贸形势总体谨慎乐观;从国内看,投资仍将对经济增长起重要作用。2014年为保持经济中高速增长和稳定地方政府财政收入,继续增加土地出让规模或提高土地出让单价的压力仍将存在。●综合各种因素,预判2014年房价涨幅总体见顶,但分化将进一步明显,尤其是地均GDP与商品房售价比指数高的地方,房价还有上升的空间;地均GDP与商品房售价比指数低的地方,房价有下调空间。●建议进一步提高土地供应的针对性和差异化水平,加大已供土地的批后监管,提高土地有效供应,促进土地节约集约利用。
● From an international perspective, the overall situation of China’s foreign trade in 2014 was cautiously optimistic. From a domestic perspective, investment will still play an important role in economic growth. In order to maintain the rapid economic growth and stabilize the revenue of local governments in 2014, the pressure of continuing to increase the scale of land transfer or raising the unit price of land transfer will still exist. ● Based on various factors, it is forecasted that the overall increase of housing prices will peak in 2014, but the differentiation will be further evident. In particular, where the ratio of GDP per capita to the price index of commercial housing is high, housing prices will have room for improvement; GDP per capita and commercial housing sales Where the price index is low, there will be room to cut prices. ● It is suggested to further improve the pertinence and differentiation of land supply, intensify post-grant supervision of land supply, raise the effective supply of land and promote the intensive use of land.