论文部分内容阅读
应用线性回归、非整数波谱和小波分析等方法 ,分析了东北玉米主产区热量资源的长期演变趋势和变化周期 ,并对未来 1 0a的情况进行初步预测。要素包括 :日平均气温稳定≥ 7℃、≥ 1 0℃的初、终日期 ,≥ 1 0℃积温和 5月～ 9月平均气温之和。结果表明 ,近半个世纪内 ,≥ 7℃、≥ 1 0℃初日有逐渐提前的趋势 ,农业生产季内热量资源有增加趋势 ,但近些年这些要素较不稳定。界线温度初、终日存在 2 3a、1 5a和 9a左右的变化周期 ,≥ 1 0℃积温和 5月～ 9月气温之和存在 60a、3 5a～ 4 1a、1 5a～ 1 6a、9a和 3a～ 4a变化周期。目前所处的长周期内的暖期很可能在 2 0 1 0年前后结束 ,积温增加的趋势和农作物播期提前的趋势也将缓解 ,而且在中短周期内 ,近几年积温可能将减少 ,冷害和霜冻可能发生 ,农作物品种和播期都应有相应调整
Using the methods of linear regression, non-integral spectrum and wavelet analysis, the long-term evolution trend and the change cycle of caloric resources in the main producing areas of northeast corn were analyzed and the situation of 10 years in the future was preliminarily predicted. Elements include: the average daily temperature stable ≥ 7 ℃, ≥ 10 ℃ early and final dates, ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature and May to September the sum of the average temperature. The results showed that in the recent half a century, ≥7 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ had a tendency of gradually increasing in the early days and increasing in the agricultural production season, but these elements were less stable in recent years. There is a period of variation around 2 3a, 1 5a and 9a at the beginning and the end of the boundary temperature. The sum of the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ and the temperature from May to September exists for 60a, 35a ~ 41a, 1 5a ~ 1 6a, 9a and 3a ~ 4a change cycle. The current long period of warm period is likely to be completed before and after 2010, the accumulated temperature increase and crop sowing ahead of the trend will ease, and in the short period, the accumulated temperature in recent years may be reduced , Chilling and frost may occur, crop varieties and sowing date should be adjusted accordingly