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为弄清滑坡变形预测中指数平滑法的适用情形,探讨了该法对三峡库区两种典型滑坡位移曲线——台阶型位移变形曲线和波动型位移变形曲线趋势预测的适用性。研究结果表明,对于台阶型位移变形曲线,在变形增量由大变小的转折点处,预测值曲线形成尖峰形状,使得预测值估计偏大,而其它阶段误差值相对较小;对于波动型位移变形曲线,指数平滑法具有相当的滞后性,滞后时间与选取的预测时间间隔大致一致,表现出较差的适应性。
In order to find out the application of exponential smoothing in landslide deformation prediction, this paper discusses the applicability of the method to predict the displacement curves of two typical landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir - the step displacement curve and the wavy displacement curve. The results show that for the step-type displacement deformation curve, the predicted value curve forms a spike shape at the turning point where the deformation increment decreases from big to small, which makes the prediction value to be larger, while the error value in other stages is relatively small. For the fluctuating displacement Deformation curves and exponential smoothing methods have considerable hysteresis. The lag time is roughly consistent with the selected forecasting time interval, showing poor adaptability.