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在发展中国家,多种多样的规划被用来控制大城市的扩展和城市人口增长,然而,这些规划的界线屡屡被突破。当前,已有很多国内外文献对规划失败的原因展开了研究,本文对这些原因进行了梳理,可以归纳为以下几个方面:城市规划不系统、不科学;政府执行不到位;城市化或经济发展过快等。本研究对主要发展中国家大城市规划人口和现实人口进行了归纳和对比,认为城市人口的低估是大城市规划难以实现的一个关键因素。最后,利用世界上110个国家60年(1950–2010年)的数据,分析了各个国家首位城市人口和各国城市化水平及国土面积之间的关系,基于此,一个简要的预测模型被用来预测世界主要国家大城市的人口;为了更好地预测各国首位城市人口的数量,本文还设立了4个哑变量。预测结果与现实人口的对比显示:模型具有较高的预测精度。
In developing countries, a wide variety of programs are used to control the expansion of megacities and urban population growth, however, and the boundaries of these programs are often broken. At present, there are many domestic and foreign literature on the reasons for the failure of the planning study, the paper reviewed these reasons can be summarized as the following aspects: urban planning is not systematic, unscientific; government implementation is not in place; urbanization or economy Too fast development. This study summarizes and compares the planned urban population and the actual population in major cities in developing countries. It is concluded that underestimation of urban population is a key factor in the planning of big cities. Finally, using the data of 60 countries (1950-2010) in 110 countries in the world, we analyze the relationship between the first urban population in each country and the urbanization level and land area of each country. Based on this, a brief forecasting model is used Predict the population of major cities in major countries in the world. In order to better predict the number of the first urban population in each country, four dummy variables are also established in this paper. The comparison between the predicted result and the actual population shows that the model has high prediction accuracy.