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为解决老年人高峰出行这一社会现象,特以南磨房地区老年人作为研究对象,通过问卷式和座谈式的调查,研究高峰时段影响老年人错峰出行的因素。利用非集计理论和方法,构建老年人错峰出行选择行为模型,进行了参数标定和分析,量化影响因素对老年人选择行为的影响程度。通过定性分析,得出加快经济建设,完善老年人处所周边设施;引入老年班车、组织老年人活动、实行“出行代理”等方法以点带面地界解决北京范围内引导老年人错峰出行的难题。
In order to solve the social phenomenon of the peak travel of senior citizens, we investigated the elderly influential factors of peak travel during the peak hours by questionnaire and informal discussion. By using non-aggregate theory and methods, this paper constructs a behavioral model of elderly peak-shifting travel choice, calibrates and analyzes the parameters, and quantifies the influence of influencing factors on the selection behavior of the elderly. Through qualitative analysis, it is concluded that speeding up the economic construction and perfecting the facilities around the premises for the elderly; introducing elderly shuttle, organizing the activities of the elderly, and implementing “travel agency ” and other methods to solve the difficult problem of leading older people to take the wrong peak to travel in Beijing.