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基于水土耦合机制的泥石流预报方法采用小流域为基本预报单元,较为完整地体现了流域尺度上泥石流的形成过程,具有极高的推广应用价值.基于该预报方法,借助GIS强大的空间数据处理功能、Fortran高效的计算能力和C#优秀的可视化界面设计功能,设计并实现了具有较好人机交互界面的四川省区域泥石流预报系统.以2013年7月9日四川省境内大规模泥石流灾害事件作为系统的检验实例,运行结果表明:系统不仅具有运行稳定,操作简单,运算速度快和自动展示预报结果的特点,而且具有较高的预报精度,较低的漏报率和误报率.所以,系统的运行效率和预报精度均能很好地满足泥石流减灾的需求.
The debris flow forecasting method based on soil-water coupling mechanism adopts the small watershed as the basic forecasting unit, which completely embodies the formation process of debris flow on the basin scale and has a very high value of popularization and application. Based on this forecasting method, GIS- , Fortran efficient computing power and C # excellent visual interface design function, designed and implemented the Sichuan regional debris flow forecasting system with good human-computer interaction interface.With the large-scale debris flow disaster in Sichuan Province on July 9, 2013 as a system The results show that the system not only has the characteristics of stable operation, simple operation, fast operation and automatic display of forecast results, but also has higher forecasting accuracy, lower false negative rate and false positive rate. Therefore, the system The operational efficiency and forecast accuracy can well meet the needs of debris flow reduction.