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由于大型研发项目研制过程中的复杂性和不确定性,其进度风险评估是一难点。本文运用多元联系数方法构建了大型研发项目进度风险评价模型,定义了大型研发项目工序的多元联系数工期,提出了多元联系数网络计划技术,确定了优势路线,并通过仿真分析得到了大型研发项目总工期的概率分布,最后由项目总工期的概率分布得出规定时间内大型研发项目进度风险评估值。该方法为大型研发项目的进度风险评价提供了理论依据和新的方法手段。
Due to the complexity and uncertainty in the development of large R & D projects, the progress risk assessment is a difficult task. In this paper, we construct the evaluation model of the progress risk of large-scale R & D projects by using the method of multi-element connection number, define the multi-link number duration of the large-scale R & D project process, propose the multi-link number network planning technology, determine the dominant route, and get the large R & D The probability distribution of the total duration of the project, and finally the probability distribution of the total R & D project progress risk from the total project duration probability distribution. The method provides a theoretical basis and a new method for the evaluation of the progress risk of large-scale R & D projects.