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为促进疏散警报快速传播,提高区域疏散效率,应构建区域疏散警报的传播模型。从警报通知和传播扩散2个方面分析疏散警报的传播过程,将其分为疏散警报的发布、接收、理解、评估、行动、响应等6个阶段。从信息源、传播渠道、传播者、接收者等4个典型主体角度,研究区域疏散警报的传播模式。基于多主体理论,建立多警报来源的区域疏散警报传播模型。提出信息耗损定理、融合定理和阈值定理,用于描述警报在人员个体之间的传播规则。将模型应用于某气田周边区域。用多主体软件Repast Simphony得到的模拟结果表明,用此模型能得出随时间变化的警报传播效率数值,模型的可行性被验证。
In order to promote the rapid spread of evacuation alerts and improve the efficiency of evacuation in the area, a dissemination model of evacuation alerts should be established. The process of evacuation alarm is analyzed from the two aspects of alarm notification and diffusion. The evacuation alarm is divided into six stages: release, reception, comprehension, assessment, action and response of evacuation alarm. From the perspectives of information sources, communication channels, communicators and receivers, this paper studies the dissemination patterns of regional evacuation alerts. Based on multi-agent theory, a regional evacuation alarm propagation model with multiple sources of alerts is established. Proposed information loss theorem, fusion theorem and threshold theorem, used to describe the propagation of the alarm between individuals in the rules. Apply the model to the surrounding area of a gas field. Simulation results obtained with the multi-agent software Repast Simphony show that the model can be used to derive the alarm propagation efficiency over time. The feasibility of the model is verified.