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目的在部分医院开展调查,分析放射诊疗总人次与门急诊人次等基础数据之间的关系,并预测我国既往十年的放射诊疗年度总人次。方法选择中、东、西三个地区,通过发放统一制定的调查表由当地卫生监督/疾控中心负责现场调查,调查内容包括:医疗机构级别、床位数、2014年门急诊就诊人次及放射诊疗人次数等信息。采用GLM模型,利用卫生统计年鉴公开数据,预测过去10年间我国放射诊疗和CT检查总人次。结果共调查390家医疗机构,覆盖8875.04万人次门急诊,1099.05万人次放射诊疗和295.47万人次CT检查。一级、二级、三级别医疗机构放射诊疗总人次占门急诊总人次的比例范围分别为(4.8±1.8)%、(12.5±3.3)%、(16.5±5.5)%,CT检查人次占放射诊疗的比例分别为(21.5±13.7)%、(33.1±5.5)%、(32.1±7.8)%。经回归分析发现CT设备的数量、不同地区及医院级别是CT检查人次占放射诊疗总人次比例的主要影响因素。预测2005-2014年我国放射诊疗人次的年增长率为7.8%,CT检查人次的年增长率为11.7%,2014年全国放射诊疗和CT检查总人次分别为33593.96万、6428.45万。结论通过门急诊人次在一定程度上可预测放射诊疗人次,其方法还需要进一步研究。
Objective To investigate in some hospitals and analyze the relationship between the total number of radiotherapy clinics and the basic data such as the number of emergency attendances and emergencies and forecast the total number of radiotherapy clinics in the past ten years in our country. Methods The middle, east and west regions were selected to conduct on-the-spot investigation by issuing a unified questionnaire by the local health surveillance / disease control center. The investigation contents include: level of medical institutions, number of beds, attendance of emergent patients in 2014 and radiotherapy People and other information. Using the GLM model, using the public health statistical yearbook data to predict the total number of radiotherapy clinics and CT examinations in China in the past 10 years. Results A total of 390 medical institutions were surveyed, covering 88,754,000 outpatient and emergency department visits, 10,990,500 person-times radiotherapy and 2,955,700 CT examinations. The total number of radiological diagnosis and treatment of first-class, second-class and third-class medical institutions accounted for (4.8 ± 1.8)%, (12.5 ± 3.3)% and (16.5 ± 5.5)%, respectively, The rates of diagnosis and treatment were (21.5 ± 13.7)%, (33.1 ± 5.5)% and (32.1 ± 7.8)%, respectively. The regression analysis found that the number of CT equipment, different regions and the hospital level is the main factor influencing the proportion of total number of CT examination visits. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of radiotherapy and medical treatment in China will be 7.8% and that of CT examination will be increased from 11.7% to 5.4% in 2005-2014. In 2014, the total number of radiotherapy and CT examination in China was 335.9396 million and 64.2845 million respectively. Conclusions The number of outpatient and emergency visits can predict radiological visits to a certain extent. The method needs further study.