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首先基于故障树分析法建立了接触网系统的可靠性模型,在大量调研和统计分析的基础上,用梯形模糊变量描述接触线、承力索和绝缘子的故障率和修复率,用三角形模糊变量描述接触网其他部件的故障率和修复率,将接触网系统的故障率、修复率和可用度等可靠性指标视为随机模糊函数,利用可信度理论实现了接触网可靠性的模糊评估。计算结果表明,只要掌握各部件故障率和修复率的大致分布,就可以较准确地计算接触网系统的可靠性指标,误差满足工程精度的要求。
Firstly, the reliability model of catenary system was established based on fault tree analysis. Based on extensive investigation and statistical analysis, the trapezoidal fuzzy variables were used to describe the failure rate and repair rate of contact lines, load cables and insulators. The triangular fuzzy variables Describing the failure rate and repair rate of other parts of the catenary, the reliability indices of catenary system such as failure rate, repair rate and availability are regarded as stochastic fuzzy functions. The reliability of catenary is evaluated by reliability theory. The calculation results show that as long as the failure rate and the repair rate of each component are roughly distributed, the reliability index of the catenary system can be calculated accurately and the error meets the requirements of engineering accuracy.