论文部分内容阅读
基于1978～2009年吉林省东、中、西部共8个县(市)玉米单产和气候条件数据,运用面板回归模型研究该时期内气候条件变异对吉林省玉米单产的影响。结果表明,1978年以来,吉林省玉米单产波动性较强,产能不稳定。日平均气温、日照时数、日降水量、相对湿度和风速均对玉米气象产量有显著影响。从影响方向看,除风速外,其他因素均对吉林省样本地区玉米气象产量产生正向影响;从影响程度看,玉米生育期内的日降水量影响最大,其次是日均气温和日照时数,相对湿度和风速的影响相对较小。
Based on the data of maize yield and climatic conditions in 8 counties of eastern, central and western Jilin province from 1978 to 2009, panel regression model was used to study the effects of climatic conditions variation on yield per unit area of maize in Jilin Province during this period. The results show that since 1978, corn yield per unit area in Jilin Province has been very strong and its production capacity is not stable. The average daily temperature, sunshine hours, daily precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed all have a significant impact on the meteorological yield of maize. From the aspect of influence, in addition to the wind speed, other factors have a positive effect on maize meteorological yield in the sample area of Jilin Province. From the perspective of influence degree, daily precipitation during maize growth period has the greatest impact, followed by daily average temperature and sunshine duration Relative humidity and wind speed have a relatively small impact.