论文部分内容阅读
本文按照各地区房价增长率,把全国31个省市分为房价高增长率地区、中等增长率地区、低增长率地区。面板协整检验发现:房价高增长率、中等增长率地区房价与经济基本面之间不存在协整关系,房地产市场出现了泡沫。为了进一步分析房地产泡沫产生的原因,本文用动态面板模型差分广义矩方法估计了房价方程,结果表明:房价高增长率地区房价的收入弹性系数最大,住房投机行为对房价有显著影响,房价已经脱离了住房成本的影响,出现了严重的泡沫;房价中等增长率地区受住房投机行为影响,房价出现了非理增长。房价低增长率地区房价增长没有脱离经济基本面。为保持房地产业的健康发展,首先,房地产业应由支柱产业转变为民生产业;其次,坚持紧缩性的房地产政策,改变房价持续上涨的预期。
In this paper, according to the growth rate of housing prices in all regions, the country’s 31 provinces and cities are divided into high-growth rate of housing areas, medium-rate growth areas, low-growth areas. Panel cointegration test found that: the high rate of house prices, the medium rate of increase in housing prices and the economic fundamentals there is no cointegration relationship between the real estate market bubble. In order to further analyze the causes of the real estate bubble, this paper estimates the house price equation by using the dynamic panel model of the differential generalized moment method. The results show that the housing price elasticity of housing prices is the highest, housing speculation has a significant impact on housing prices, housing prices have been detached The impact of housing costs, there has been a serious bubble; housing prices moderate growth rate affected by housing speculation, housing prices have seen irrational growth. Housing prices in low growth rates did not out of economic fundamentals. In order to maintain the healthy development of the real estate industry, firstly, the real estate industry should be transformed from a pillar industry to a livelihood industry; secondly, it should stick to its tightening property policies and change expectations of rising house prices.