Thermal barrier coatings(TBCs) usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equation is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first- or second-order moment.It is shown that the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The interfacial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service. Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime due to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. First, a limit assessment equation is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equation is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first- or second-order moment. If shown the the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The interfacial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service.