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针对山区公路泥石流易发性评价问题,基于Fisher判别分析理论,在分析影响泥石流易发程度的基础上,选取9个影响因子作为判别指标,以G314线奥依塔克镇至布伦口段公路50条沟谷作为学习样本,建立了山区公路泥石流易发性评价的Fisher判别分析模型,利用回代估计方法对建模数据逐一进行检验,正确率达100%,并选用其它4组待检样本对判别模型进行验证,验证结果均与实际情况相符.研究结果表明:Fisher判别分析法用于山区公路泥石流易发性判别效果良好,是解决评价山区公路两侧沟谷泥石流易发性的一种有效方法.
Based on the Fisher discriminant analysis theory, based on the analysis of the degree of susceptibility to debris flow, nine influencing factors were selected as the discriminant indexes. Based on the Fisher discriminant analysis theory, 50 valleys were used as learning samples to establish Fisher Discriminant Analysis Model of debris flow susceptibility assessment of mountain highway. The back-estimation method was used to test the modeling data one by one, with the correct rate of 100% and the other 4 groups of samples to be tested Discriminant model to verify the verification results are in line with the actual situation.The results show that: Fisher discriminant analysis method for mountain highway debris flow susceptibility to discriminate well, is to evaluate the mountainous areas on both sides of the mountain valley debris flow is an effective method .