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从我国2011年上半年面临较大节能压力的宏观背景出发,分析了我国现阶段电力供应结构与电力消费部门结构的趋势特征,并从电力供需特征视角解读和分析了我国节能压力形成的根源。分析认为,工业结构的“重型化”特征、电力供应向火电集中和生活端能耗上升是使当前节能和节电形势较为严峻的主要原因,但总体能耗变化态势可能依然维持“前紧后松”过程,节能压力将在下半年得到缓解。不过,因受到结构重型化、主要节能降耗政策的效应衰减、消费升级产生较大能源需求以及能源价改滞后等因素的作用,未来我国节能降耗的难度和不确定性可能进一步上升。
From the macroscopic background that China faces a big pressure on energy saving in the first half of 2011, this paper analyzes the trend characteristics of the power supply structure and power consumption sector structure in China at the present stage, and interprets and analyzes the causes of the pressure on energy conservation in China from the perspective of power supply and demand characteristics. According to the analysis, the “heavy-duty” feature of industrial structure, the concentration of power supply to thermal power and the increase of energy consumption at home are the main reasons for the current severe energy-saving and power-saving situation. However, the overall energy consumption trend may remain “ Tight loose after the ”process, energy-saving pressure will be eased in the second half. However, due to the structural heavy-duty, the decay of the effect of the main energy-saving and consumption-reducing policies, the greater energy demand caused by the upgrading of consumption and the lag of the energy price reform will further increase the difficulty and uncertainty of saving energy and reducing consumption in the future.