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近期读一部华尔街“行为金融学”的译本,知道曾有行为金融学专家在美国做过一个大致这样的统计:选择两组股票投资试验者,一组专门买入为华尔街主要投资银行研究机构评级为“买入”级的强势热门股;一组专门买入为华尔街主要投资银行研究机构评级为“卖出”级的弱势股,最后的统计结果发现,第一组投资人跑输大盘5%,而第二组投资人跑赢大盘12%。该书的作者无意贬低华尔街投资银行研究人员所做出的努力,他是试图通过这个实验说明一个这样的事实:情绪性因素对市场参与各方的影响极大,研究人员和投资人员很难摆脱市场走势和市场集体观念对个人情绪的干扰,且市场乐观或悲观的情绪互相感染互相强化,因此,人们在市场趋势判断中很难完全排除情绪性因素。
Recently read a Wall Street Journal of Behavioral Finance, know that there have been behavioral finance experts in the United States made a general such statistics: the choice of two groups of stock investment trial, a group of specialized buy Wall Street major investment bank research institutions A group of popular stocks rated “Buy”; a group of buy-ins that were rated as “sell” by the Wall Street major investment banking research institutes. The final statistics found that the first group of investors underperformed the broader market 5 %, While the second group of investors outperformed the broader market 12%. The author of the book, unintentionally belittling the efforts of Wall Street investment bank researchers, tries to illustrate through this experiment the fact that emotional factors have a huge impact on all parties involved in the market and that researchers and investors are hard to get rid of Market trends and market collective concept of personal emotions interfere with, and market optimism or pessimism sentimental mutual reinforce each other, therefore, people in the judgment of the market trend is difficult to completely rule out emotional factors.