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经济新常态下社会保障基金保值增值问题日益成为个人、社会和政府所关注的焦点问题,不仅仅是因为基金本身的属性,更重要的是社会保障基金所属的制度属性和社会属性。而从目前社会保障基金投资的渠道来看,90%以上投资于银行和购买国债。鉴于此,笔者采用现代资产组合理论模型,通过稳健性检验,分析了中国社会保障基金投资策略的“畸轻畸重”效应。经验分析的结果表明,投资策略与目前金融市场的发育度和全国社会保障基金理事会对基金投资渠道及投资比例限定有显著性的正相关关系;而且,在目前金融市场发展格局下,社会保障基金被大量的投入银行和国债势必会导致在“保值”策略下的“贬值”格局的产生。因此,应逐步把社会保障基金保值增值职能由政府主导行为逐步过渡到市场主导行为,而政府应回归其监督和服务职责。
Under the new economic normal, the issue of maintaining and increasing the value of social security funds has increasingly become the focus of concern to individuals, the society and the government, not only because of the nature of the fund itself, but more importantly, the institutional and social attributes of the social security fund. From the current social security fund investment channels, more than 90% invested in banks and purchase government bonds. In view of this, I use the modern portfolio theory model, through the robustness test, analysis of China’s social security fund investment strategy “lightness ” effect. The empirical analysis shows that the investment strategy and the current development of the financial market and the National Council of Social Security Fund investment fund channels and the proportion of investment has a significant positive correlation; and, in the current pattern of financial market development, social security A large number of funds into banks and government bonds will inevitably lead to “devaluation ” strategy “devaluation ” pattern. Therefore, the social security fund should be gradually shifted from the government-led behavior to the market-led behavior, and the government should return to its supervision and service responsibilities.