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根据航道交通容量计算方法,建立了航道资源静态承载力模型,基于锚地规模计算方法和基准判定参数,建立了锚地资源承载力分级模型。应用排队理论,将港口码头泊位的服务强度与航道资源、锚地资源的承载力模型相融合,构建了港口交通资源承载力综合预测预警模型,并以中国南方某港口进行实例验证。计算结果表明:应用预测预警模型,2008年与2010年的航道资源承载力指数分别为0.405与0.608,锚地资源承载力综合指数分别为1.489与0.600,2008年的港口码头服务强度为0.565,计算结果与事实相符;按照货物吞吐量的增长速度,预计到2015年,最小、最大航道资源承载力指数分别为0.593与0.796,预计到2020年,最小、最大航道资源承载力指数分别为0.685与0.944;基于现有锚地资源,预计到2015年,水深小于5m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为0.177,水深在5～10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.037,水深大于10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.294,预计到2020年,水深小于5m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为0.210,水深在5～10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.231,水深大于10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.535;预计到2015年,港口码头的最小泊位服务强度为0.858,预计到2020年,港口码头的最小泊位服务强度为0.994。
According to the calculation method of the traffic volume of the waterway, a static bearing capacity model of the waterway resources is established. Based on the calculation method of the anchorage size and the parameters of the baseline judgment, a grading model of the capacity of the anchorage resources is established. The queuing theory is applied to integrate the service strength of port berths with the capacity of waterway resources and anchorage resources, and a comprehensive forecasting and warning model of port traffic resources carrying capacity is constructed and verified by a port in southern China. The calculation results show that the forecasting and warning models of the waterway are respectively 0.405 and 0.608 in 2008 and 2010, and the comprehensive index of the resources carrying capacity of the anchorage are 1.489 and 0.600 respectively. The service strength of port wharf in 2008 is 0.565, and the calculation result According to the growth rate of cargo throughput, it is estimated that by 2015, the minimum and maximum channel resources carrying capacity index will be 0.593 and 0.796, respectively. It is estimated that the minimum and maximum channel resources carrying capacity index will reach 0.685 and 0.944 respectively by 2020; Based on the existing anchorage resources, it is estimated that by 2015, the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity index of water depth less than 5m is 0.177, that of maximum anchorage resource carrying water depth of 5 ~ 10m is 1.037, and the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity index of water amplifying greater than 10m is 1.294, it is estimated that the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity index of water depth less than 5m is 0.210, the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity index of water depth of 5 ~ 10m is 1.231, and the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity index of water depth greater than 10m is 1.535 by 2020; In 2015, the service strength of the minimum berth at the port was 0.858. It is estimated that the service strength of the minimum berth at the port will be 0.994 by 2020.