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本文从模型建立的背景出发,并从理论上论证了1960-2003年间城市化和流通业的关系已经发生了结构变化,并用Granger检验进行因果分析。最后用1980-2004年的面板数据研究了城市化与流通业水平的关系,研究表明我国城市化水平每增长1个百分点会使流通业增长1.1936个百分点;而且中部的城市化水平对流通业的弹性最高为1.8827,东部次之为1.0952,西部最小为0.9274。
This article sets out from the background of the model, and theoretically demonstrates that the relationship between urbanization and circulation has undergone structural changes in 1960-2003, and the causal analysis has been carried out by Granger test. Finally, the panel data of 1980-2004 was used to study the relationship between urbanization and the circulation industry. Studies show that for every 1% increase in the level of urbanization in our country, the circulation industry will increase by 1.1936 percentage points. In addition, The highest elasticity of 1.8827, the eastern part of 1.0952, the western minimum of 0.9274.