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从人均GDP入手,利用空间自相关和冷热点分析对泛珠江—西江经济带2005—2014年经济差异的时空演变格局进行了探讨,通过泰尔指数分解和地理加权回归模型剖析了经济差异的驱动因素。选取人均社会消费品零售额、人均固定资产投资、人均财政支出和人均存款余额作为自变量表征消费水平、投资水平、政府实力和金融状况对经济差异的驱动机理。结果如下:(1)尽管十年间全局Moran’s I有所降低,泛珠江—西江经济带的经济差异仍呈现出“西冷东热”的二元格局;(2)泰尔指数分解后的组内差距对区域经济整体差异的贡献度远高于组间差距,并且在近两年又有上升的势头;(3)投资水平对经济发展的影响持续走低,消费和政府实力日益成为影响经济增长的重要引擎。
Starting with the per capita GDP, the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the economic disparities in the Pan-Zhujiang-Xijiang Economic Belt from 2005 to 2014 are discussed by means of spatial autocorrelation and cold-hotspot analysis. The economic disparities driven by the Theil Index Decomposition and Geographic Weighted Regression Model factor. Select the retail sales of per capita social consumer goods, per capita investment in fixed assets, per capita financial expenditure and per capita deposit balance as an independent variable to characterize the level of consumption, investment levels, government strength and financial status of the driving force for economic differences. The results are as follows: (1) Despite the decrease of global Moran’s I over ten years, the economic difference between Pan-Pearl River and Xijiang River economic belt still shows a binary pattern of “West-East Heat”; (2) The difference between the two groups in the overall economic disparity is much higher than the gap between the two groups and has shown an upward trend in the past two years; (3) the impact of investment level on economic development continues to decline, and consumption and government power have increasingly become the most influential economies An important engine of growth.