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OPEC近期达成了“减产”的意向,而俄罗斯是否加入就成为了市场关注的焦点。花旗集团俄罗斯油气分析师史密斯(Ronald Smith)认为,由于俄罗斯原油生产成本非常低,同时油企利润在汇率和税收的双重保护之下所受冲击不大,因而几乎不可能减产。俄罗斯的钻井数较2014年甚至提高了25%,产量在2020年前都能缓慢提高。这意味着,俄罗斯根本没有减产的动力。
OPEC recently reached a “cut” the intention, and whether or not Russia has joined the market has become the focus of attention. Ronald Smith, a Russian oil and gas analyst at Citigroup, believes it is almost impossible to cut production due to the very low cost of crude oil production in Russia and the insignificance of oil-firm profits under the double protection of exchange rates and taxes. Russia has even drilled 25% more wells than in 2014 and its output will slowly increase by 2020. This means that Russia has absolutely no incentive to cut production.