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2007年全年CPI同比上涨4.8%,主要以食品价格上涨推动为主,尤其猪肉价格的上涨最为明显。本文认为本轮猪肉价格的大幅上涨是市场经济周期性波动规律的体现,与我国养猪业正在发生的深刻变化以及当前国内不断增加的通胀压力有关,同时也反映了我国市场经济制度的不完善,特别是不合理的行业管理体制以及不恰当的宏观调控措施。解决当前猪肉价格上涨的主要措施在于用市场的手段尽快恢复生猪生产,保障猪肉供给,同时警惕高利润刺激下可能出现的生产过剩。
In 2007, CPI rose 4.8% YoY, mainly driven by the increase of food prices, especially the increase of pork prices. This paper argues that the sharp rise in the current round of pork prices is a manifestation of the cyclical fluctuations in the market economy and is undergoing profound changes that are taking place in China’s pig-raising industry and the current domestic inflationary pressure. It also reflects the imperfect market economy in China , Especially unreasonable industry management system and inappropriate macro-control measures. The main measure to solve the current pork price rise lies in the market means to restore hog production as soon as possible to ensure the supply of pork while guarding against possible overproduction under the stimulation of high profits.