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南水北调中线工程输水总干渠上需建数以百计的河渠交叉建筑物。总干渠经过地区为暴雨多发区，只要其中任一座遭遇特大洪水而失事，干渠供水将会受到影响。对这些交叉建筑物进行水毁风险分析，是此项工程规划、设计和运行管理的供输水风险评价和可靠度分析必不可少的组成部分。主要从水文风险要素的辨识入手，采用概率组合法，建立了整个总干渠洪水水毁风险计算的框架，并提出了二维复合事件的风险计算模型。所建模型巧妙地解决了各交叉建筑物水毁事故之间的相关性，简化了大型串联系统风险计算的复杂性，详细计算了海河流域南运河段不同工程设计标准的水毁风险，经过多方比较论证，说明该河段计算成果合理可靠。并在此基础上估算了整个干渠的水毁总风险。
South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project There are hundreds of canal cross structures to be built on the main water conveyance. After the main trunk canal passes through the area with heavy rainfall areas, as long as any one of them encounters a serious flood and crashes, the water supply to the main channel will be affected. An analysis of the risk of water damage to these cross-linked buildings is an integral part of the water supply risk assessment and reliability analysis of the project planning, design and operation management. Starting with the identification of hydrological risk factors, a probabilistic combination method is used to establish the framework of flood risk calculation of the whole main canal, and a risk calculation model of two-dimensional composite events is proposed. The proposed model cleverly solves the correlation between water damage accidents of cross buildings and simplifies the complexity of risk calculation of large-scale series systems. The risk of water damage of different engineering design standards in the South Canal section of the Haihe River Basin is calculated in detail. Comparison and demonstration, indicating that the calculation of the river section is reasonable and reliable. Based on this, the total risk of water damage in the whole trunk canal was estimated.