针对总体内不同阶层随机流动的变化过程,分析了阶层结构的随机性质,利用马尔科夫方法建立了多次流动下阶层结构变化趋势的预测模型,并展示了模型应用的良好效果.研究结果为劳动力市场人才流动、城乡二元人口流动、社会经济阶层流动等问题的研究,提供了一种有效的思路和方法.“,”For the change process of the random mobility between different classes in specific population,thispaper analysis the stochastic nature of the class structure,builds the forecast model of the change trend of the class structure under multiple mobility by Markov method,and reveals the good effect of the model application.The model can be applied in the study of such issues as talent flow in labor market,the population flow between urban and rural,the social and economic class mobility,it provides an effective way of thinking and methods.