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从宏观层面综合评价某一国家或地区的产业碳排放及其影响力,系统地提出产业低碳经济发展策略,已经成为一项关键工作。本文在投入产出模型和生态投入产出模型的基础上,提出了产业碳排放影响力系数-产业影响力系数(ICCE-IC)矩阵理论,根据象限分布将产业划分为高排放/高影响、高排放/低影响、较高排放/高影响、较高排放/低影响、低排放/高影响、低排放/低影响6种类型,并分别界定低碳经济发展策略;利用我国2007年投入产出表和按行业分能源消费量,分析我国43个产业部门二氧化碳排放量的ICCE-IC组合矩阵分布结构,研究和探索既可降低碳排放、又能保持经济稳定增长的产业结构调整策略。
A comprehensive evaluation of the industrial carbon emissions in a given country or region and its influence at the macro level systematically put forward the strategy of industrial low-carbon economy development, which has become a key task. Based on the input-output model and the ecological input-output model, this paper proposes the ICCE-IC matrix theory, which divides the industry into high emission / high impact, High emission / low impact, high emission / high impact, high emission / low impact, low emission / high impact, low emission / low impact 6 types, and define the low carbon economic development strategy respectively; The paper also analyzes the distribution structure of ICCE-IC portfolio matrix of carbon dioxide emissions in 43 industrial sectors in China, and studies and explores industrial restructuring strategies that can both reduce carbon emissions and maintain stable economic growth.