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本文从近年来个贷市场出现的一些新情况新变化入手,分析研究了市场非均衡对银行个贷业务和个贷市场中各市场群体的影响,并用非均衡理论对当前个贷发展中面临的贷款用途泛虚化、贷款余额增长乏力和贷款质量下降三个问题进行了解释说明,对非均衡所造成的买卖双方成本收益和市场力量的不对等进行了剖析。在此基础上,本文又分析了个贷市场非均衡在客户群体中所形成的逆选择问题和在银行同业中形成的“囚徒困境”问题,并由此引出了个贷市场发展的经济周期规律。此外,本文还对市场非均衡的一般性认识进行了分析,指出市场非均衡在个贷经营周期的不同阶段,对个贷业务的影响是不同的,在市场起步和逐步繁荣的阶段其影响是积极的,而在市场逐渐饱和渐趋衰退的阶段影响是消极的。因此,保障个贷平稳发展的关键在于认清当前所处的个贷市场阶段,根据现实的市场环境相机做出抉择,实行有针对性的阶段性策略,以有效应对当前个贷业务面临的三大问题挑战。本文最终在对个贷市场非均衡进行充分分析后,给出了个贷业务当前发展的阶段性策略,就市场非均衡条件下个贷业务调整的切入点和调整路径进行了说明。
This article starts from some new situations and changes in the individual loan market in recent years, analyzes and studies the impact of the market unbalance on the various market groups in the personal loan business and individual loan market, and analyzes the current personal loan development The generalization of loan use, the weak growth of loan balance and the decline of loan quality. The paper analyzes the cost-benefit and market inequality of both buyer and seller caused by non-equilibrium. On this basis, this article also analyzes the problem of adverse selection formed by the unbalanced personal loan market in the customer base and the problem of “Prisoners’ Dilemma” formed in the interbank market and leads to the economic development of individual loan market Periodic law. In addition, this article also analyzes the general understanding of market imbalance, and points out that the market imbalance has different impact on individual loan business in different stages of individual loan business cycle, and its impact on the stage of market start-up and gradual prosperity is Positive, while the impact of the gradually declining market saturation is negative. Therefore, the key to safeguarding the smooth development of personal loans lies in recognizing the stage of the individual loan market in which it is currently located, making decisions based on realistic market conditions and implementing targeted phased strategies to effectively cope with the current three Big problem challenge. In the end, after a full analysis of the loan market imbalance, this paper gives the current stage strategy of personal loan business, and points out the starting point and adjustment path of personal loan business adjustment under the market unbalanced condition.