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[目的]评价1985～2005年招远市肝癌死亡率的变化趋势。[方法]采用1985～2005年全死因监测资料,观察指标为肝癌死亡率,用Joinpoint回归模型分析肝癌标化死亡率的变化趋势。[结果]招远市肝癌死亡率在1985～1999年呈持续上升趋势,1995～1999年达到最高峰,年增长率为4.94%;2000～2004年后肝癌死亡率略有下降,年变化率为-5.70%;但仍高于1985～1989年水平。[结论]1985～2005年招远市肝癌的发生前13年呈明显上升趋势,后7年呈下降趋势,但仍然高于1985年时水平。
[Objective] To evaluate the trend of liver cancer mortality in Zhaoyuan City from 1985 to 2005. [Methods] The data of all-cause monitoring from 1985 to 2005 were used to observe the death rate of liver cancer. The Jointing regression model was used to analyze the trend of the standardization of mortality of liver cancer. [Results] The mortality rate of liver cancer in Zhaoyuan continued to increase from 1985 to 1999, reaching the peak from 1995 to 1999, with an annual growth rate of 4.94%. After 2000-2004, the mortality rate of liver cancer decreased slightly with an annual rate of -5.70%; but still higher than the 1985 ~ 1989 level. [Conclusion] From 1985 to 2005, the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in Zhaoyuan City increased significantly in the 13 years before it, and then decreased in the latter 7 years, but still higher than that in 1985.