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我国八届人大四次会议通过的“九五”计划和2010年远景目标纲要中,对“九五”期间的年均经济增长速度规定为8%左右。这一增长速度会给中国经济和社会发展带来怎样的新面貌?为实现这一增长速度应该如何去做?本文为回答这些问题作一点初步探讨。由美国宾州大学的萨马(R.Summers)和海斯顿(A.Heston)教授编写的彭氏世界表,反映了世界上150多个国家从50年代到90年代初的宏观经济数据。彭氏世界表5.6版本根据购买力计算,将中国1990年人均国内生产总值定为1324国际货币1985年单位(相当于1985年美元)。从1991——1995年的五年中,中国国内生产总值平均增长率在12%左右。同一时期,中国的人口年增长率低于20‰。这样,中国人均国内生产总值年均增长率大于10%。以1990年1324国际货币单位为起点,按人均国内生产总值年平均增长率10%计算,1995年中国人均国内生产总值应为2132国际货币单位。1995年中国约有12亿人口,国内生产总值应为25584亿国际货币单位。
In the “1995” plan approved by the Fourth Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress and the Outline for 2010 Vision, the average annual economic growth rate for the “1995” period is set at about 8%. What kind of new look will this rate of growth bring to China’s economic and social development? What should we do to achieve this rate of growth? This article will give some preliminary answers to these questions. The Peng’s World Table, written by professors R. Summers and A.Heston at the University of Pennsylvania, reflects macroeconomic data from more than 150 countries in the world from the 1950s to the early 1990s. According to purchasing power calculation, Pangshi World Table 5.6 sets the per capita GDP of China in 1990 as 1324 units of international currency in 1985 (equivalent to 1985 dollars). In the five years from 1991 to 1995, the average growth rate of China’s gross domestic product was about 12%. In the same period, China’s annual population growth rate is below 20 ‰. In this way, the average annual growth rate of China’s per capita GDP is greater than 10%. Starting from 1324 International Monetary Unit in 1990 and calculated at an average annual growth rate of 10% of GDP per capita, in 1995 China’s per-capita GDP should be 2132 International Monetary Unit. In 1995, China had a population of about 1.2 billion and its GDP should be 2,558.4 billion International Monetary Units.