An Objective Approach to Generating Multi-Physics Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts Based on the WRF

来源 :气象学报(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:saintjob
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Selecting proper parameterization scheme combinations for a particular application is of great interest to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model users. This study aims to develop an objective method for identify-ing a set of scheme combinations to form a multi-physics ensemble suitable for short-range precipitation forecasting in the Greater Beijing area. The ensemble is created by using statistical techniques and some heuristics. An initial sample of 90 scheme combinations was first generated by using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Then, after seve-ral rounds of screening, a final ensemble of 40 combinations were chosen. The ensemble forecasts generated for both the training and verification cases using these combinations were evaluated based on several verification metrics, in-cluding threat score (TS), Brier score (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and ranked probability score (RPS). The results show that TS of the final ensemble improved by 9%-33% over that of the initial ensemble. The re-liability was improved for rain ≤ 10 mm day-1, but decreased slightly for rain > 10 mm day-1 due to insufficient samples. The resolution remained about the same. The final ensemble forecasts were better than that generated from randomly sampled scheme combinations. These results suggest that the proposed approach is an effective way to se-lect a multi-physics ensemble for generating accurate and reliable forecasts.
其他文献
摘 要 天使学说是基督教神学中的重要问题,托马斯·阿奎那利用亚里士多德形式—质料学说和阿维森纳的灵魂学说,通过形式逻辑的三段论,提出了他的天使理论,并在这一论证过程中对上帝的存在做出了证明。托马斯通过论证指出,上帝是纯存在,天使是形式与存在的复合,物质实体是形式与质料的复合。  关键词 灵智体 存在 形式 质料  中图分类号:B503
目的:  (1)初步探讨HBV X基因准种群及突变位点的动态变化与肝癌进程之间的关系;  (2)揭示准种群的遗传进化规律;  (3)比较二代测序和克隆测序两种方法检测HBV X基因准
摘 要 在倡导“健康第一”,推行素质教育的改革浪潮中,冷静地审视我们体育教学现状,不能不看到我们的课堂教学实践与新的教育思想之间仍然存在差距,以身体素质为评价的体质教育,没有能够给青年学生的身心健康带来更多的实惠,以培养学生兴趣和快乐体育为主的改革思想,很难在教学实践中取得形式与效果的统一,学生爱好体育但不喜欢体育课的现状还有待于进一步改进,这些都清楚地告诉我们,必须对传统体育教学模式进行根本性变