[目的 ]为控制流行性出血热的流行提供科学依据。 [方法 ]采用马尔可夫链的计算方法 ,求出各阶转移概率矩阵中的最大转移概率 ,对周宁县未来 5年流行性出血热的发病趋势和发病率作预报。[结果 ]在转移概率矩阵P( 1 5) 中 ,状态 1(表示低度流行水平 )对应的概率值 ,都是P11[表示由状态 1转向状态 1(即保持原低度流行水平不变 )的概率 ]最大。[结论 ]周宁县未来 5年 (即 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 4年 )流行性出血热可呈低发趋势 ,发病率的估计区间为 0 0 1～ 9 3 7/10万。但是 ,未来第 5年流行出血热也有转呈中发或高发的可能 ,应严加防患 ,防患于未然 [Objective] To provide a scientific basis for controlling the epidemic of epidemic hemorrhagic fever. [Method] The maximum transfer probability of each transition probability matrix was calculated by using Markov chain calculation method, and the trend and incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in the next 5 years in Zhouning were predicted. [Result] In the transition probability matrix P (1 5), the probability values ​​corresponding to state 1 (representing the low prevalence level) are all P11 [representing the transition from state 1 to state 1 (ie keeping the original low prevalence level unchanged) Probability] maximum. [Conclusion] Epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Zhouning County in the next 5 years (ie 2000-2004) may show a trend of low incidence with the estimated interval of 0 101 to 93 7/10. However, the fifth year in the future epidemic of hemorrhagic fever also has the possibility of transfer or high incidence of hair should be strictly preventive measures take preventive measures