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随着“一带一路”战略的推进,中国与东亚地区经贸合作将不断扩大,产业内分工形式日益兴盛,使得产业内贸易成为影响中国与东亚经济周期协动性的重要因素。本文以差异产品产业内贸易和中间产品产业内贸易为切入点,阐述了产业内贸易影响经济周期协动性的具体路径,并利用面板数据,就产业内贸易对中国与东亚经济周期协动性的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明,相较于双边贸易强度,产业内贸易对经济周期协动性的正向影响更为显著,且资本密集型产品产业内贸易较劳动密集型产品产业内贸易对经济周期协动性具有更大的促进作用。在此基础上,本文就如何保持中国经济平稳运行,推动中国在东亚经济中发挥更为积极的作用,合理调整中国对外贸易结构提出了相关的政策建议。
With the advancing strategy of “Belt and Road”, the economic and trade cooperation between China and East Asia will continue to expand and the form of intra-industry division of labor will flourish. As a result, intra-industry trade has become an important factor that affects the economic cooperation between China and East Asia. This article takes the differences between intra-industry trade and inter-industry intra-industry trade as the starting point, elaborates the concrete path that intra-industry trade affects economic cycle symbiosis, and uses panel data to analyze intra-industry trade’s synergy with China and East Asia economic cycle The impact of empirical studies. The results show that compared with the intensity of bilateral trade, the positive effect of intra-industry trade on the economic cycle symbiosis is more significant, and the intra-industry trade of capital-intensive products is more effective than the intra-industry trade of labor-intensive products on the economic cycle symbiosis A greater role in promoting. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations on how to keep China’s economy running smoothly, to promote China to play a more active role in East Asian economy, and to reasonably adjust China’s foreign trade structure.