论文部分内容阅读
Through more than a half of this year， attention is given to the question whether each province/municipality of China can realize the economic indicator at the beginning of this year.
Compared with the GDP growth， the goals about the increase of citizens’income and doubling the disposable income per capita of urban residents are harder to be realized.
Difficult goals in many places
Take Guizhou for example： at the beginning of this year， this southwestern province of China fixed the goal of increasing the per capita disposable income of urban citizens and farmers by more than 15%. But the half-year report showed that the disposable income per capita of urban residents increased by only 10.2% in the first six months of 2013， while the figure for the rural area only had a 14.2% increase.
Last November， Gansu Province， a northwestern province of China， put forward the Plan of Doubling the Disposable Income of Urban Citizens of Gansu， saying that the per capita disposable income of urban citizens needed to increase by 15% annually for the sake of the goal of doubling the income of Gansu people in five years （2012-2016）.
However， in the first half of this year， the disposable income per capita of urban citizens in Gansu amounted to RMB 9，327.32， up 10.9% from a year ago. In the first half of 2013， the farmers of Gansu earned the income in cash of RMB 2，736.10 per capita， up 13.2% year on year.
The same case also happened in Shaanxi， which put forward the plan of increasing citizens’ income. The plan requires doubling the per capita income of urban and rural citizens of Shaanxi by 2016 compared with the figure in 2011 – up or close to the average level in China. That also means a 15% increase year on year. At the beginning of this year， this province set the goal of increasing the per capita income of urban and rural citizens respectively by 14% and 15%. However， the half-year data showed that the actual increase from January to June was 9.8% for urban citizens and 13.2% for rural citi-zens， far from the original goal.
Sheng Songcheng， head of the Department of Statistics at the central bank， wrote an article for China’s newspaper CBN last year. “The plan of doubling the income of urban and rural citizens listed in the report of the 18th CPC Congress refers to the double income with the CPI influence reduced.”
What’s worth attention is that the goals of many places about doubling the income were based on the current price level， meaning that the CPI factor is not taken into consideration. If the calculation of GDP growth is adopting the same method （without the CPI indicator）， the actual growth rate of income is farther away from the original goal and even lower than the GDP growth rate at the same time. For example， in 2010， the per capita income of people in Guizhou respectively amounted to RMB 14，142.74 in cities and RMB 3，472 in countryside. According to its plan of doubling the income， the per capita income of urban and rural citizens in Guizhou will respectively reach RMB 28，300 and 7，500 by 2015. From the number we can see that the goal in 2015 is just the result of multiplying two with the figure in 2010– no CPI factors are taken into consideration.
It is the same for Gansu. In the first half of 2012， the per capita disposable income of urban citizens in this province was RMB 8，409.34. In 2013， the figure – just the figure – increased by 10.9% to RMB 9，327.32. The base of price in the calculation does not change even though it has gone through ups and downs in the real life.
It is worthwhile to mention that the failure to realize the goal of increasing the income mainly happened in the western or central areas of China， mostly because of the ultrahigh goals they set. In comparison， the provinces/municipalities in the eastern area of China are more realistic and conservative. They set up the goals which were easier to be realized. For example， Guangdong， the most developed province in China， put forward the goal of increasing the per capita income of urban and rural citizens by 8% annually in the next five years and doubling the income of 2010 by the year of 2018.
“It is out of question to realize this goal，” says Prof. Han Zhaozhou， an expert in statistics and the dean of Education Department at Jinan University. Prof. Han is a long-term researcher of the income of citizens.
Jiangsu is as conservative as Jiangsu when it comes to the plan of doubling citizens’ income. It is going to double the income of Jiangsu people by the year of 2017 compared with 2010， CPI factors excluded.
How to share the pie
Hu Xiaodeng， director of the Urban Economic Research Institute at the Guizhou Provincial Academy of Social Sciences， says that the goals set by western and central provinces could be realized through efforts and the reform to the income distribution system given the current external environment and their own development momentum in 2010. But in the last two years， the external environment went through significant changes， rendering them unable to realize the original goals.
“On top of the goals about income， the expected GDP growth rate is hard to be realized now，” said Hu Xiaodeng. A look into the proportion of the national budget investment in the fixed assets investment revealed the pattern like the altitudes of different areas in China– the more westward the place is， the higher the proportion is. In the western areas of China， the proportion of the national budget investment in the fixed assets investment is close to 40%. This pattern brings about an easyto-see result. The GDP growth and the dramatic increase of national fortunes are not correspondingly related with the actual disposable income of citizens.
Actually， no matter in West or East China， the wages of laborers and the citizens’ income take a very small part of the GDP. According to Han Zhaozhou， in 1978， the laborers’ income took 60.6% of Guangdong’s GDP. In 2010， the proportion dropped 16.2 percent to 44.4%. In comparison， such a proportion is generally between 50% and 55% in developed countries.
Against the drop of proportion of laborers’ income is the continuous rise of the proportion enterprises’ profits and governmental tax in the GDP. In Guangdong， the provincial governmental tax income took 13.5% of GDP in 1978 and increased to 14.9% in 2010.
In Han Zhaozhou’s opinion， the high proportion of laborers’ income in the GDP in the 1970s was a result of the planned economy， but the proportion as low as 44.4% in 2010 was not reasonable at all. “I think that the laborers’ income should take about 50% of the GDP， a proportion close to the one in developed countries. We should share more fruits of economic development with the laborers，” Han Zhaozhou says.
Another fact that people should be alert of is that many provinces overfulfilled the goal about financial income in the first half of 2013 in spite of the harsh economic situation. In Guizhou， for example， the financial income of this province reached RMB 100.026 billion in H1， 2013， with an increase of RMB 14.74 billion， or 17.3%， compared with a year ago.
“The financial income is closely related with the increase in income. The government takes in a lot of money. If there is no significant reform to the secondary distribution， it is harder to realize the goal of doubling citizens’ income，” said Hu Xiaodeng. When slowed economic growth applies bigger stress， it is necessary to think of how to share the income for the sake of the goal about doubling income.
“The pie is large enough，” said Hu Xiaodeng. “If the government does not think of reducing its part， it is almost impossible to realize the goal of doubling citizens’ income.”
Compared with the GDP growth， the goals about the increase of citizens’income and doubling the disposable income per capita of urban residents are harder to be realized.
Difficult goals in many places
Take Guizhou for example： at the beginning of this year， this southwestern province of China fixed the goal of increasing the per capita disposable income of urban citizens and farmers by more than 15%. But the half-year report showed that the disposable income per capita of urban residents increased by only 10.2% in the first six months of 2013， while the figure for the rural area only had a 14.2% increase.
Last November， Gansu Province， a northwestern province of China， put forward the Plan of Doubling the Disposable Income of Urban Citizens of Gansu， saying that the per capita disposable income of urban citizens needed to increase by 15% annually for the sake of the goal of doubling the income of Gansu people in five years （2012-2016）.
However， in the first half of this year， the disposable income per capita of urban citizens in Gansu amounted to RMB 9，327.32， up 10.9% from a year ago. In the first half of 2013， the farmers of Gansu earned the income in cash of RMB 2，736.10 per capita， up 13.2% year on year.
The same case also happened in Shaanxi， which put forward the plan of increasing citizens’ income. The plan requires doubling the per capita income of urban and rural citizens of Shaanxi by 2016 compared with the figure in 2011 – up or close to the average level in China. That also means a 15% increase year on year. At the beginning of this year， this province set the goal of increasing the per capita income of urban and rural citizens respectively by 14% and 15%. However， the half-year data showed that the actual increase from January to June was 9.8% for urban citizens and 13.2% for rural citi-zens， far from the original goal.
Sheng Songcheng， head of the Department of Statistics at the central bank， wrote an article for China’s newspaper CBN last year. “The plan of doubling the income of urban and rural citizens listed in the report of the 18th CPC Congress refers to the double income with the CPI influence reduced.”
What’s worth attention is that the goals of many places about doubling the income were based on the current price level， meaning that the CPI factor is not taken into consideration. If the calculation of GDP growth is adopting the same method （without the CPI indicator）， the actual growth rate of income is farther away from the original goal and even lower than the GDP growth rate at the same time. For example， in 2010， the per capita income of people in Guizhou respectively amounted to RMB 14，142.74 in cities and RMB 3，472 in countryside. According to its plan of doubling the income， the per capita income of urban and rural citizens in Guizhou will respectively reach RMB 28，300 and 7，500 by 2015. From the number we can see that the goal in 2015 is just the result of multiplying two with the figure in 2010– no CPI factors are taken into consideration.
It is the same for Gansu. In the first half of 2012， the per capita disposable income of urban citizens in this province was RMB 8，409.34. In 2013， the figure – just the figure – increased by 10.9% to RMB 9，327.32. The base of price in the calculation does not change even though it has gone through ups and downs in the real life.
It is worthwhile to mention that the failure to realize the goal of increasing the income mainly happened in the western or central areas of China， mostly because of the ultrahigh goals they set. In comparison， the provinces/municipalities in the eastern area of China are more realistic and conservative. They set up the goals which were easier to be realized. For example， Guangdong， the most developed province in China， put forward the goal of increasing the per capita income of urban and rural citizens by 8% annually in the next five years and doubling the income of 2010 by the year of 2018.
“It is out of question to realize this goal，” says Prof. Han Zhaozhou， an expert in statistics and the dean of Education Department at Jinan University. Prof. Han is a long-term researcher of the income of citizens.
Jiangsu is as conservative as Jiangsu when it comes to the plan of doubling citizens’ income. It is going to double the income of Jiangsu people by the year of 2017 compared with 2010， CPI factors excluded.
How to share the pie
Hu Xiaodeng， director of the Urban Economic Research Institute at the Guizhou Provincial Academy of Social Sciences， says that the goals set by western and central provinces could be realized through efforts and the reform to the income distribution system given the current external environment and their own development momentum in 2010. But in the last two years， the external environment went through significant changes， rendering them unable to realize the original goals.
“On top of the goals about income， the expected GDP growth rate is hard to be realized now，” said Hu Xiaodeng. A look into the proportion of the national budget investment in the fixed assets investment revealed the pattern like the altitudes of different areas in China– the more westward the place is， the higher the proportion is. In the western areas of China， the proportion of the national budget investment in the fixed assets investment is close to 40%. This pattern brings about an easyto-see result. The GDP growth and the dramatic increase of national fortunes are not correspondingly related with the actual disposable income of citizens.
Actually， no matter in West or East China， the wages of laborers and the citizens’ income take a very small part of the GDP. According to Han Zhaozhou， in 1978， the laborers’ income took 60.6% of Guangdong’s GDP. In 2010， the proportion dropped 16.2 percent to 44.4%. In comparison， such a proportion is generally between 50% and 55% in developed countries.
Against the drop of proportion of laborers’ income is the continuous rise of the proportion enterprises’ profits and governmental tax in the GDP. In Guangdong， the provincial governmental tax income took 13.5% of GDP in 1978 and increased to 14.9% in 2010.
In Han Zhaozhou’s opinion， the high proportion of laborers’ income in the GDP in the 1970s was a result of the planned economy， but the proportion as low as 44.4% in 2010 was not reasonable at all. “I think that the laborers’ income should take about 50% of the GDP， a proportion close to the one in developed countries. We should share more fruits of economic development with the laborers，” Han Zhaozhou says.
Another fact that people should be alert of is that many provinces overfulfilled the goal about financial income in the first half of 2013 in spite of the harsh economic situation. In Guizhou， for example， the financial income of this province reached RMB 100.026 billion in H1， 2013， with an increase of RMB 14.74 billion， or 17.3%， compared with a year ago.
“The financial income is closely related with the increase in income. The government takes in a lot of money. If there is no significant reform to the secondary distribution， it is harder to realize the goal of doubling citizens’ income，” said Hu Xiaodeng. When slowed economic growth applies bigger stress， it is necessary to think of how to share the income for the sake of the goal about doubling income.
“The pie is large enough，” said Hu Xiaodeng. “If the government does not think of reducing its part， it is almost impossible to realize the goal of doubling citizens’ income.”