论文部分内容阅读
基于代表性家庭追求效用最大化,文中构建了一个由外国实际收入、汇率水平、货物出口以及经GARCH(1,1)模型估计所得条件方差作为汇率风险代理变量组成的服务出口方程。采用自回归分布滞后估计方程参数,并将汇率变动影响货物出口进而传导至服务出口的间接效应纳入分析框架。估计结果显示,汇率水平变动与服务出口之间存在负相关关系,而汇率风险却有助于推动服务出口;汇率变动对服务出口的累积净效应表明,汇率水平变动是汇率变动对服务出口最终影响效应的主导因素。最后从我国汇率变动与服务贸易发展角度也证实了该结论。
Based on the maximization of the representative household’s pursuit of utility, a service outlet equation consisting of foreign real income, exchange rate level, exports of goods and the variance of the conditions estimated by the GARCH (1,1) model is taken as the agent of exchange rate risk. The parameters of the equation are estimated by using the lagged autoregressive distribution, and the indirect effects of the exchange rate changes on the exports of goods and then on the exports of services are incorporated into the analysis framework. The estimated results show that there is a negative correlation between changes in exchange rate and service exports, while exchange rate risks help to promote service exports. The cumulative net effect of exchange rate changes on service exports shows that the change in exchange rates is the final effect of exchange rate changes on service exports The dominant factor of effect. Finally, this conclusion is also confirmed from the viewpoint of China’s exchange rate changes and the development of service trade.