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作者阐述了当前金融危机预警研究中存在的几个误区,认为正是这些误区导致当前金融危机预警效果的低效和不完整性。基于研究基础上,本文认为新一代的预警模型必须引入非线性研究范式、非经济的预警指标和全方位的预警模式。
The author expounds several misunderstandings in the current financial crisis early warning research and concludes that it is these misunderstandings that cause the inefficiency and incompleteness of the warning effect of the current financial crisis. Based on the research, this paper argues that a new generation of early warning model must introduce non-linear research paradigm, non-economic warning indicator and omni-directional warning model.