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空中交通流量的快速增长,导致空域资源紧张和大量航班延误。使用新航行技术缩小间隔标准可以有效地缓解上述问题。因此,对航路的碰撞风险进行评估具有重要意义。传统Event模型的碰撞模板是一个长方体模板,本文在前人研究的基础上提出了用椭球体代替长方体碰撞模板的思想,并对飞机穿越垂直间隔片的概率重新进行计算。结果表明,在相同条件下改进后的Event碰撞风险模型是原模型碰撞概率的53.38%,改进的碰撞风险评估模型更加精确合理。
The rapid growth of air traffic led to airspace resource constraints and delays in a large number of flights. The use of new navigation techniques to reduce the separation criteria can effectively alleviate the above problems. Therefore, it is of great importance to evaluate the collision risk of the route. The collision template of the traditional Event model is a rectangular parallelepiped template. Based on the previous studies, this paper proposes the idea of replacing the rectangular parallelepiped collision template with an ellipsoid and recalculates the probability of the aircraft passing through the vertical spacer. The results show that under the same conditions, the improved Event collision risk model is 53.38% of the original model, and the improved collision risk assessment model is more accurate and reasonable.