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2016上半年,我国宏观经济在持续探底中开始呈现企稳的迹象。与此同时,一系列值得关注的新现象表明,宏观经济运行依然面临四方面的问题:一是供给侧结构性改革的着力点难以清晰、明确;二是稳增长政策难以缓解宏观经济深层次问题,经济主体的信心不强;三是经济内生性下滑的压力仍然存在;四是宏观经济难以形成持续稳定或复苏的基础。下半年,宏观经济下行压力有可能进一步抬头。本轮“不对称W型调整”的第二个底部将于2016年底至2017年初出现,并呈现出强劲的底部波动特征。根据模型预测,2016年我国GDP增速为6.6%,CPI为2.3%。2016年~2017年是我国实施供给侧结构性改革的关键期,“改革”+“更为积极的财政政策”+“适度宽松的货币政策”+“强监管”必须要有可操作的抓手和可实施的方案,各类改革方案和政策措施必须作出新的调整。
In the first half of 2016, China’s macroeconomy began to show signs of stabilization in continued bottoming out. At the same time, a series of new phenomena that deserve attention show that the macroeconomic operation still faces four problems: First, the focus of the supply-side structural reform is hard to be clearly and clearly defined; second, it is difficult for the steady growth policy to ease deep-seated macroeconomic problems The confidence of economic agents is not strong; third, the pressure of economic endogenous decline still exists; fourth, it is difficult for macro economy to form the basis for sustained stability or recovery. In the second half, downward pressure on the macro economy is likely to rise further. This round of “asymmetric W-type adjustment ” of the second bottom will appear from the end of 2016 to early 2017, and showed a strong bottom wave characteristics. According to the model predictions, China’s GDP growth in 2016 was 6.6% and the CPI was 2.3%. 2016 to 2017 is the key period for China to implement the supply-side structural reform, “reform ” “more proactive fiscal policy ” “moderately loose monetary policy ” "strong regulation There must be an operable starting point and an implementable plan. Various reforms and policies and measures must be adjusted.