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目的研究银川市影响蝇密度的气象因子,筛选合适的因子预测蝇密度的变化趋势,为防控蝇虫传播疾病提供科学依据。方法监测2014-2015年银川市蝇密度并收集同期气象数据,气象数据经膨化处理用Spearman秩相关分析两者相关性,并用逐步回归分析建立蝇密度的气象因子拟合模型。结果 2014-2015年银川市蝇密度季节消长曲线均为单峰型,蝇密度与月平均水汽压、月平均气温和月平均气压有关,与月累计日照时数、月总降水量、月相对湿度和月温差无关。逐步回归分析得到蝇密度与气温的拟合方程。结论气象因子对蝇密度有重要影响,并可以用温度拟合模型预测蝇密度的变化趋势。
Objective To study the meteorological factors affecting the density of flies in Yinchuan, and to screen the suitable factors to predict the trends of the density of flies and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of fly-borne diseases. Methods We monitored the density of flies in Yinchuan during 2014-2015 and collected the same period meteorological data. The meteorological data were analyzed by Spearman rank correlation analysis after puffing treatment. The meteorological factor fitting model of flies density was established by stepwise regression analysis. Results The seasonal distributions of flies density in Yinchuan during 2014-2015 were all unimodal. The density of flies was related to monthly mean vapor pressure, monthly mean temperature and monthly mean air pressure, and the monthly cumulative sunshine hours, total monthly precipitation, monthly relative humidity And the temperature difference has nothing to do. Stepwise regression analysis obtained flies density and air temperature fitting equation. Conclusion The meteorological factors have an important influence on the density of flies, and the trend of flies density can be predicted by the temperature fitting model.