【摘 要】
：
Indonesia is an archipelago country and is fairly vulnerable to disasters.While disasters generally affect government revenue and expenditure,their effects likely vary by country.This study examines the effect of disasters on the fiscal balance,revenue,an
【机 构】
：
Economic Planning and Development Policy,University of Indonesia,Jakarta 10440,Indonesia;Center for
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Indonesia is an archipelago country and is fairly vulnerable to disasters.While disasters generally affect government revenue and expenditure,their effects likely vary by country.This study examines the effect of disasters on the fiscal balance,revenue,and expenditure of local governments.We used panel data and fixed effects meth-ods to estimate the degree to which disaster severity influences budgetary solvency at the district and provincial levels in Indonesia between 2010 and 2018.This study revealed that disasters can strain fiscal balance at the dis-trict and provincial levels due to a decrease in own-source revenue and an increase in social assistance expenditure,capital expenditure,consumption expenditure,and unex-pected expenditure.The district expenditure most threat-ened by disasters is consumption expenditure,while the provincial expenditure most threatened is unexpected expenditure.We also found that an increase in capital expenditure can lead to financial burden due to delays of planned projects or post-disaster reconstruction.Based on these findings,it is clear that some forms of insurance or other financing schemes are necessary to mitigate the adverse impacts of disasters on regional fiscal balance.
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