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本文通过考察中国奶产业链中生产者价格和零售价格之间是否存在非对称价格传递来观察2008年以来中国的奶产业链重构是否使奶农利益得到改善。脉冲响应函数和误差修正分析均表明,奶产业链上的价格非对称传递确实存在;非对称误差修正分析发现,牛奶零售价格的误差修正速度远快于生产者价格;而且牛奶零售价格对应于上游价格上涨的传递敏感于上游价格下跌。因此,一系列的改革措施并没有改善奶农利益受损的情况。
This article examines whether asymmetric price transfers exist between producer and retail prices in China’s dairy industry chain to see whether the restructuring of the dairy industry chain in China has improved dairy farmers’ interests since 2008. Impulse response function and error correction analysis show that the price asymmetry transfer in the milk industry chain does exist. Asymmetric error correction analysis shows that the error correction rate of milk retail price is far faster than that of producer price. And the milk retail price corresponds to the upstream The transfer of price increases is sensitive to the falling prices in the upstream. Therefore, a series of reforms have not improved the interests of dairy farmers.