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据国际能源署预测,印度将在今后20年内取代中国成为世界能源消费增量最大的国家。本文将中印GDP和能源消费数据视为经济增长政策和能源政策的结果,采用中印双方历史数据分析经济增长政策和能源政策之间的关系,并建立模型检验分析结果。本文认为,中国的经济增长政策与能源政策都具有独立或主动性质,而印度经济增长政策是主导,而能源政策以支持增长为主。中印能源政策主导方向差异是印度能源消费将保持相对较高增长的主要原因,而中印经济发展水平和经济结构差异是影响能源政策导向的基础。
According to the International Energy Agency forecast, India will replace China in the next 20 years to become the world’s largest increase in energy consumption. Based on the historical data of China and India, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth policy and energy policy and establishes the result of model test and analysis. This paper argues that both China’s economic growth policy and its energy policy are independent or proactive while India’s economic growth policy is dominant while energy policy mainly supports growth. The main difference between China and India in the direction of energy policy is the main reason why India’s energy consumption will maintain relatively high growth. The differences in economic development and economic structure between China and India are the basis for influencing energy policy.