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本文在概括性描述我国金融发展的典型事实并重新构造度量指标的基础上,利用省级面板数据实证分析我国金融发展的决定因素,证实地方政府的财政收支行为对我国金融发展有显著的作用,其中财政赤字对经济货币化指标具有显著的正向影响,对重新构造的金融相关比率具有显著的正向作用,对以股票资产交易额衡量的资本市场发展指标具有显著的反向影响;而金融发展指标对经济增长的效应不显著,政府的扩张性支出行为驱动的金融发展即通过提高资本积累而不是资本效率促进经济增长,但这种增长的可持续性是不容乐观的。金融体系的进一步发展有赖于深化财政体制改革和创新公共融资模式。
Based on a general description of the typical facts of China’s financial development and the reconstruction of metrology indexes, this paper empirically analyzes the determinants of China’s financial development by using panel data at the provincial level and confirms that the fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments have a significant effect on China’s financial development , Of which the fiscal deficit has a significant positive impact on economic monetization indicators, a significant positive effect on the restructured financial-related ratio and a significant reverse impact on the capital market development indicators measured by the trading value of the equity assets; and The effect of financial development index on economic growth is insignificant. The financial development driven by government’s expansionary expenditure behavior promotes economic growth through increasing capital accumulation instead of capital efficiency. However, the sustainability of such growth is not optimistic. The further development of the financial system depends on deepening the reform of the financial system and innovating the public financing model.